Thursday, April 28, 2011

New trends in Arab politics

I expect that some features of Arab politics from the 1960s and 1970s will make a comeback.  States that opened up, like Egypt and Tunisia, may experience plots and assassinations.  Decades-long frustrations are destined to have an impact, here and there, and maybe everywhere.  The second bombing of the gas pipeline to Israel is only a beginning.  Israel has been an actor for decades, while Arabs were forced to watch.  Tables will be reversed.  Israel will begin to watch a show that it won't enjoy.  The political trends are clear: from North Africa to Gulf.  The counter-revolution is in full force, to be sure, but it suffers from a major weakness: it is led by House of Saud and sons of Zayid, for potato's sake.